Adi Shamir makes 15 predictions for the next 15 years in his anniversary keynote “Financial Cryptography: Past, Present, and Future” at Financial Cryptography 2016 ( below bullets are copied from Ross Andreson’s blog post):
1. Cybersecurity is terrible, and will get worse.
2. The Internet of Things will be a security disaster.
3. Cyber warfare will be the norm rather than the exception in conflicts.
4. RC4 and SHA-1 will be phased out while AES and SHA-2/3 will remain secure (he expects a SHA-1 collision within the year)
5. Improved factoring and DL algorithns will be found requiring key sizes beyond 2048 (he feels it will not be a fully polynomial algorithm; 4096 should be OK).
6. Elliptic curves will fall out of favour (there’s a very strange current situation with the NSA moving away from it with no explanation).
7. Research will still pour into quantum crypto and quantum computing, as the physics community is geared up to accept large amounts of government money.
8. But there will be no full size quantum computers capable of factoring RSA keys.
9. No-one will use quantum crypto.
10. Governments will not tolerate anonymity.
11. Most people will not demand or expect real privacy; that war is already lost.
12. Tools to fight cybercrime and attacks will further diminish privacy.
13. Bitcoin will fade away but leave a legacy
14. Blockchain will be hyped, but succeed only in limited circumstances.
15. An endless stream of new payment mechanisms will be presented at future Financial Crypto conferences.
More info can be found in this link: